Georgian-Russian War

Posted by Unknown , Monday, August 11, 2008 8:39 AM

Here are the options in the Georgian-Russian war as I see them.

-The West keeps trying to find a diplomatic solution, Russia finally stops being stubborn and accepts the Georgian cease fire, and we assess the damage after the fact.

OR

-The West doesn't find a diplomatic solution but doesn't commit to a military action, Georgia is overrun, and the Balkans forever side with Russia, starting the Cold War again.

OR

-The West commits to military action, the Russians back down or are defeated, and the Balkans forever side with the West.

OR

-The West commits to military action, the Russians don't back down and summon their allies to fight, and the future is uncertain.

If the last two options are what ends up happening, and Russia fights instead of backing down (thus making the only plausible end Russia's destruction), it will effectively be World War III.

Remember, all World War's have started with something relatively small. World War I was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. World War II was the invasion of Poland and (for the U.S.) Pearl Harbor. Some reports say that there have been thousands of casualties in this military aggression.

Is this the final showdown of the Cold War?

Posted in politics, thinking, war

3 Response to "Georgian-Russian War"

The Simmons Says:

To be honest, they did not start over small acts. The typing point was usually something fairly small, but the wars were largely continuations of previous conflicts. WWI had been brewing in the European Sphere for over two decades. WWII was as much a continuation of the original Great War instigated by increased nationalism brought on by economic strife as a simple war over territory. This would never be enough to instigate a "world war." At worst, this could become a Serbia or Bosnia for the time being. Both of those changed regional politics and caused tensions between Western powers and Russia. Now if we get a couple of dozen more of these conflicts over the next few decades, then you have enough tender piled up for a small spark to set off a full out international war.

10:13:00 AM

Unknown Says:

Right. I didn't mean that there was nothing before any of those small events. I meant that they were sparks to the international kindling.

I disagree with you over whether this would be a world war or not, though. If the U.S. were to back Georgia and actually send whatever few troops we could, I'm not so sure that Russia wouldn't call for its allies in the region, or at least escalate the conflict to take the neighboring regions (especially Ukraine, since they want it so much) to secure their position in that region. I don't think, if this had happened, that the EU would have completely sat back and watched. There would have at least been some engagement - especially considering the power Russia could become if it were to reestablish hegemony.

Plus, the tensions have been there for a long time. The Soviet Union fell less than 20 years ago, and was replaced by the CIS - which was just a weaker "union" of the states with Russia again as the most powerful.

But you are definitely right about one thing. One small spark is all it will take to set those tensions on fire - if the friction doesn't cause it first.

10:37:00 AM

Anonymous Says:

And wouldn't that then make it a hot war?

10:44:00 AM